{
  "source": "DataPointX Research",
  "license": "Quote with attribution and a link",
  "notice": "Backtests on historical data; education and research only, not investment advice.",
  "items": [
    {
      "title": "Two published intraday strategies, tested on NIFTY 50 stocks: an edge that fades and one that isn't there",
      "description": "A noise-band breakout from \"Beat the Market\" and the market intraday momentum effect, applied to every NIFTY 50 stock from 2016. The first had a real edge that shrank every period; the second has almost none.",
      "verdict": "Noise band −₹1.53 Cr, edge 5.7 → 1.5 bps over three periods. Intraday momentum: 0.1 bps before costs.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "academic-research",
        "momentum",
        "strategy-test"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/academic-strategies-in-india/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/academic-strategies-in-india.md",
      "variants": [
        {
          "label": "Noise band (1x), trailing exit",
          "trades": 127985,
          "gross_bps": 4.09,
          "net_inr": -15347137,
          "net_3bps_inr": -53677380,
          "win_pct": 23.8,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -2516274,
            "2021-23": -4833284,
            "2024-26": -7997579
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Noise band (1x), hold to 15:15",
          "trades": 75420,
          "gross_bps": 3.98,
          "net_inr": -9451040,
          "net_3bps_inr": -32037320,
          "win_pct": 47.3,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -2109216,
            "2021-23": -1858661,
            "2024-26": -5483162
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Noise band (1.5x), trailing exit",
          "trades": 78165,
          "gross_bps": 4.67,
          "net_inr": -7119618,
          "net_3bps_inr": -30529761,
          "win_pct": 24.7,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -174550,
            "2021-23": -1765900,
            "2024-26": -5179169
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Intraday momentum, any move, enter 14:45",
          "trades": 128299,
          "gross_bps": 0.11,
          "net_inr": -40855723,
          "net_3bps_inr": -79279067,
          "win_pct": 41.6,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -18642585,
            "2021-23": -11510225,
            "2024-26": -10702913
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Intraday momentum, move > 0.5%, enter 14:45",
          "trades": 73555,
          "gross_bps": 0.37,
          "net_inr": -22468622,
          "net_3bps_inr": -44498964,
          "win_pct": 42.3,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -10825441,
            "2021-23": -6153816,
            "2024-26": -5489364
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Intraday momentum, move > 1%, enter 14:45",
          "trades": 36831,
          "gross_bps": 0.54,
          "net_inr": -10948077,
          "net_3bps_inr": -21980553,
          "win_pct": 42.9,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -4988737,
            "2021-23": -3031255,
            "2024-26": -2928085
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Intraday momentum, move > 0.5%, enter 14:15",
          "trades": 73555,
          "gross_bps": 0.64,
          "net_inr": -21498301,
          "net_3bps_inr": -43527759,
          "win_pct": 44.2,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -10416829,
            "2021-23": -5235798,
            "2024-26": -5845675
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Hammers and shooting stars: the classic reversal candles lose money before costs",
      "description": "Three falling candles, then a hammer at a new low. It is one of the most taught reversal setups. On 26,965 trades across every NIFTY 50 stock since 2016 it loses 1.6 bps per trade before costs, and no filter rescues it.",
      "verdict": "26,965 trades, −₹1.09 Cr. The pattern does worse than a random stock at the same minute.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "candlestick-patterns",
        "reversal",
        "strategy-test"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/candlestick-patterns-tested/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/candlestick-patterns-tested.md",
      "variants": [
        {
          "label": "Hammer / shooting star after 3 candles, 15-min, 2R",
          "trades": 26965,
          "gross_bps": -1.61,
          "net_inr": -10912188,
          "net_3bps_inr": -18986618,
          "win_pct": 34.3,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -4856877,
            "2021-23": -3400035,
            "2024-26": -2655276
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Wait for a confirming candle",
          "trades": 8669,
          "gross_bps": -0.34,
          "net_inr": -2957414,
          "net_3bps_inr": -5553305,
          "win_pct": 39.4,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -954921,
            "2021-23": -961811,
            "2024-26": -1040682
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Volume at least 1.5x average",
          "trades": 6303,
          "gross_bps": 0.87,
          "net_inr": -1768576,
          "net_3bps_inr": -3655931,
          "win_pct": 37.7,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -544808,
            "2021-23": -787017,
            "2024-26": -436751
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Confirmation + volume",
          "trades": 2544,
          "gross_bps": -0.22,
          "net_inr": -852533,
          "net_3bps_inr": -1614274,
          "win_pct": 40.9,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -211515,
            "2021-23": -347775,
            "2024-26": -293243
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "5-min candles",
          "trades": 69418,
          "gross_bps": -0.4,
          "net_inr": -23899751,
          "net_3bps_inr": -44685371,
          "win_pct": 34.9,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -10616150,
            "2021-23": -7036317,
            "2024-26": -6247283
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 1R",
          "trades": 27030,
          "gross_bps": -1.2,
          "net_inr": -10372345,
          "net_3bps_inr": -18466536,
          "win_pct": 47.4,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -4584186,
            "2021-23": -3081556,
            "2024-26": -2706604
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "How we backtest, and why most intraday strategies fail our tests",
      "description": "The rules behind every number on DataPointX. Point-in-time NIFTY 50 stocks, next-bar fills, real Indian brokerage and statutory costs, three separate periods, a slippage stress test and a random-stock benchmark.",
      "verdict": "Every report shows net after costs, a +3 bps stress test and three periods. No exceptions.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "method"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/how-we-backtest/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/how-we-backtest.md"
    },
    {
      "title": "We followed a popular ORB strategy guide to the letter on 10 years of NIFTY 50 data",
      "description": "Opening range breakout with an EMA trend filter, full-body candles and volume confirmation. 23,666 trades, ₹23.7 lakh lost after costs, and none of 8 variants made money.",
      "verdict": "23,666 trades, −₹23.7 lakh after costs. 0 of 8 variants profitable.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "orb",
        "breakout",
        "strategy-test"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/orb-strategy-guide-tested/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/orb-strategy-guide-tested.md",
      "variants": [
        {
          "label": "As written: 30-min range, 15-min candle, trend + full body + volume, 2R",
          "trades": 23666,
          "gross_bps": 4.49,
          "net_inr": -2366075,
          "net_3bps_inr": -9453605,
          "win_pct": 41.2,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -924867,
            "2021-23": -797671,
            "2024-26": -643537
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "No trend filter",
          "trades": 39627,
          "gross_bps": 3.97,
          "net_inr": -4999949,
          "net_3bps_inr": -16867757,
          "win_pct": 40.9,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -1639987,
            "2021-23": -1957670,
            "2024-26": -1402292
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "No volume filter",
          "trades": 55436,
          "gross_bps": 2.68,
          "net_inr": -10566571,
          "net_3bps_inr": -27167098,
          "win_pct": 38.8,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -4444589,
            "2021-23": -3246942,
            "2024-26": -2875040
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "No trend, no volume, no body filter",
          "trades": 108182,
          "gross_bps": 2.3,
          "net_inr": -22665768,
          "net_3bps_inr": -55061835,
          "win_pct": 38,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -8679366,
            "2021-23": -7404031,
            "2024-26": -6582370
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "15-min range",
          "trades": 27940,
          "gross_bps": 3.11,
          "net_inr": -4727446,
          "net_3bps_inr": -13094607,
          "win_pct": 40.6,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -2001538,
            "2021-23": -1527237,
            "2024-26": -1198671
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 1R",
          "trades": 23666,
          "gross_bps": 2.01,
          "net_inr": -5295207,
          "net_3bps_inr": -12382349,
          "win_pct": 49.6,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -2558273,
            "2021-23": -1647745,
            "2024-26": -1089189
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 3R",
          "trades": 23666,
          "gross_bps": 5.86,
          "net_inr": -744961,
          "net_3bps_inr": -7832712,
          "win_pct": 39.5,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": 22345,
            "2021-23": -221737,
            "2024-26": -545569
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "30-min candles",
          "trades": 13961,
          "gross_bps": 6.39,
          "net_inr": -73727,
          "net_3bps_inr": -4255225,
          "win_pct": 44.3,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -73779,
            "2021-23": 79841,
            "2024-26": -79788
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Pivot points: 85,701 trades show they are coin flips",
      "description": "Textbook floor-pivot breakouts and bounces on every NIFTY 50 stock since 2016. Before costs, the breakout earns +1.3 bps and the bounce at the same level loses 1.3 bps. After costs, both lose crores.",
      "verdict": "Breakout −₹2.21 Cr, bounce −₹3.36 Cr. The two are mirror images, and both lose every year.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "pivot-points",
        "support-resistance",
        "strategy-test"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/pivot-points-tested/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/pivot-points-tested.md",
      "variants": [
        {
          "label": "Breakout: R1/S1, stop P, target R2/S2",
          "trades": 85701,
          "gross_bps": 1.32,
          "net_inr": -22136933,
          "net_3bps_inr": -47801702,
          "win_pct": 49.7,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -11274150,
            "2021-23": -5907406,
            "2024-26": -4955378
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Bounce: S1/R1, stop S2/R2, target P",
          "trades": 85701,
          "gross_bps": -1.35,
          "net_inr": -33572533,
          "net_3bps_inr": -59237291,
          "win_pct": 47.1,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -15012936,
            "2021-23": -9627503,
            "2024-26": -8932093
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Supertrend, Open = Low and Camarilla: three favourite intraday setups, tested on 10 years",
      "description": "Three of the most shared intraday setups in India, run on every NIFTY 50 stock from 2016 to August 2026 with real costs. 217,034 trades between them, and every one of the three loses money in all three periods.",
      "verdict": "Supertrend −₹1.19 Cr, Open=Low −₹31 L, Camarilla −₹2.27 Cr. All three lose in every period.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "supertrend",
        "camarilla",
        "open-high-low",
        "strategy-test"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/popular-intraday-setups-tested/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/popular-intraday-setups-tested.md",
      "variants": [
        {
          "label": "Supertrend (10, 3) on 15-min candles",
          "trades": 70319,
          "gross_bps": 3.09,
          "net_inr": -11929913,
          "net_3bps_inr": -32986492,
          "win_pct": 45.8,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -3296671,
            "2021-23": -4741396,
            "2024-26": -3891846
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Open = High / Open = Low at 09:25",
          "trades": 48263,
          "gross_bps": 5.22,
          "net_inr": -3059292,
          "net_3bps_inr": -17510211,
          "win_pct": 37.5,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -37808,
            "2021-23": -787563,
            "2024-26": -2233921
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Camarilla H3/L3 fade, stop H4/L4",
          "trades": 98452,
          "gross_bps": 1.88,
          "net_inr": -22677204,
          "net_3bps_inr": -52155355,
          "win_pct": 35.5,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -7304758,
            "2021-23": -6657457,
            "2024-26": -8714989
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "title": "Survivorship bias: testing on today's NIFTY 50 adds 3.4% a year that never existed",
      "description": "The same simple portfolio on the real NIFTY 50, stock list as it was on each day, versus today's 50 stocks back-tested to 2016. Today's list turns ₹1 lakh into ₹4.9 lakh instead of ₹3.6 lakh, because it quietly picks the winners in advance.",
      "verdict": "Today's 50 stocks returned 16.2% a year since 2016; the real index stocks returned 12.8%.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "survivorship-bias",
        "method",
        "data"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/survivorship-bias/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/survivorship-bias.md"
    },
    {
      "title": "The win-rate trap: 84% winners, and the biggest loss of the lot",
      "description": "Same 120,643 entries, six different profit targets. As the win rate climbs from 43% to 84%, the loss after costs more than doubles. Why chasing win rate is the fastest way to lose money intraday.",
      "verdict": "Win rate 43% → 84% while the loss more than doubles, −₹1.98 Cr → −₹4.52 Cr.",
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "market": "IN",
      "tags": [
        "win-rate",
        "risk-reward",
        "strategy-test"
      ],
      "url": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/win-rate-trap/",
      "markdown": "https://datapointx.com/research/in/win-rate-trap.md",
      "variants": [
        {
          "label": "Target 0.1%",
          "trades": 120643,
          "gross_bps": -1.01,
          "net_inr": -45185351,
          "net_3bps_inr": -81314690,
          "win_pct": 83.9,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -22576156,
            "2021-23": -12579410,
            "2024-26": -10029785
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 0.25%",
          "trades": 120643,
          "gross_bps": -0.46,
          "net_inr": -41874111,
          "net_3bps_inr": -78001936,
          "win_pct": 74,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -20461148,
            "2021-23": -11803560,
            "2024-26": -9609403
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 0.5%",
          "trades": 120643,
          "gross_bps": 0.21,
          "net_inr": -37843684,
          "net_3bps_inr": -73970060,
          "win_pct": 60.5,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -17938769,
            "2021-23": -10884478,
            "2024-26": -9020438
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 1.0%",
          "trades": 120643,
          "gross_bps": 0.96,
          "net_inr": -33349034,
          "net_3bps_inr": -69474335,
          "win_pct": 48.1,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -15143825,
            "2021-23": -9378180,
            "2024-26": -8827029
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "Target 2.0%",
          "trades": 120643,
          "gross_bps": 2.37,
          "net_inr": -24853157,
          "net_3bps_inr": -60978459,
          "win_pct": 43.6,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -9385978,
            "2021-23": -7802488,
            "2024-26": -7664690
          }
        },
        {
          "label": "No target (hold to 15:15)",
          "trades": 120640,
          "gross_bps": 3.21,
          "net_inr": -19777069,
          "net_3bps_inr": -55902477,
          "win_pct": 42.9,
          "periods": {
            "2016-20": -5170850,
            "2021-23": -6981382,
            "2024-26": -7624837
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}